Neuro-Fuzzy Modeling Techniques in Economics

Neuro-Fuzzy Modeling Techniques in Economics

Time series forecasting of agricultural product prices using Elman and Jordan recurrent neural networks

DOI:

10.33111/nfmte.2021.067

Анотація:
Abstract: Most practical problems of forecasting time series are characterized by a high level of nonlinearity and nonstationarity, noise, the presence of irregular trends, jumps, and anomalous emissions. Under these conditions, statistical and mathematical assumptions limit the possibility of applying classical forecasting methods. The main disadvantage of statistical models is the difficulty of choosing the type of model and selecting its parameters. An alternative to these methods may be methods of computational intelligence, which include artificial neural networks, which can significantly improve the accuracy of time series prediction. A significant advantage of neural networks is that they are able to learn and generalize the accumulated knowledge, highlighting the hidden relationships between input and output data. At the moment, the most time series forecasting solutions based on this toolkit involve the use of feed-forward neural networks (perceptrons, convolutional neural networks, etc.). The article provides an overview of the architecture, principles of operation, and methods of teaching known models of recurrent neural networks. In the study, we built and compared the architectures of Elman and Jordan neural networks for solving the problem of forecasting prices for agricultural products. The corresponding statistical comparisons of the above models are also given. The experimental results show that such approach provides high accuracy in predicting the values from the price of agriculture products.
Ключові слова:
Key words: forecasting, agricultural product prices, recurrent neural network, Elman network, Jordan network
УДК:
UDC:

JEL: C18 C45 C53 Q11

To cite paper
In APA style
Kmytiuk, T., & Majore, G. (2021). Time series forecasting of agricultural product prices using Elman and Jordan recurrent neural networks. Neuro-Fuzzy Modeling Techniques in Economics, 10, 67-85. http://doi.org/10.33111/nfmte.2021.067
In MON style
Кмитюк Т.Л., Майоре Г. Time series forecasting of agricultural product prices using Elman and Jordan recurrent neural networks. Нейро-нечіткі технології моделювання в економіці. 2021. № 10. С. 67-85. http://doi.org/10.33111/nfmte.2021.067 (дата звернення: 17.09.2025).
With transliteration
Kmytiuk, T., Majore, G. (2021) Time series forecasting of agricultural product prices using Elman and Jordan recurrent neural networks. Neuro-Fuzzy Modeling Techniques in Economics, no. 10. pp. 67-85. http://doi.org/10.33111/nfmte.2021.067 (accessed 17 Sep 2025).
# 10 / 2021 # 10 / 2021
Download Paper
726
Views
159
Downloads
3
Cited by
Cited 3 times in Scopus

  1. Wei, W. W. S. (2006). Time series analysis: univariate and multivari-ate methods (2nd ed.). Pearson Addison Wesley.
  2. Wang, L., Feng, J., Sui, X., Chu, X. & Mu, W. (2020). Agricultural product price forecasting methods: research advances and trend. British Food Journal, 122(7), 2121-2138. https://doi.org/10.1108/BFJ-09-2019-0683
  3. Nehrey, M., Kaminskyi, A., & Komar, M. (2019). Agro-economic models: a review and directions for research. Periodicals of Engineering and Natural Sciences, 7(2), 702-711. http://dx.doi.org/10.21533/pen.v7i2.579
  4. Zhang, D., Chen, S., Liwen, L., & Xia, Q. (2020). Forecasting agricultural commodity prices using model selection framework with time series features and forecast horizons. IEEE Access, 8, 28197-28209. http://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2020.2971591
  5. Kozlovskyi, S., Mazur, H., Vdovenko, N., Shepel, T., & Kozlovskyi, V. (2018). Modeling and forecasting the level of state stimulation of agricultural production in Ukraine based on the theory of fuzzy logic. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 14(3), 37-53. https://doi.org/10.14254/1800-5845/2018.14-3.3
  6. Adewole, A.P., Akinwale, A. T., & Akintomide, A. B. (2011). Artificial Neural Network Model for Forecasting Foreign Exchange Rate. World of Computer Science and Information Technology Journal, 1(3), 110-118. https://www.academia.edu/71618631/Artificial_Neural_Network_Model_for_Forecasting_Foreign_Exchange_Rate
  7. Osman, H. (2019). Time Series Prediction Using Neural Network (1st ed.). LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing.
  8. Gately, E. (1995). Neural Networks for Financial Forecasting. John Wiley & Sons.
  9. Palmer, A., Montaño, J.J., & Sesé, A. (2006). Designing an artificial neural network for forecasting tourism time series. Tourism Management, 27(5), 781-790. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2005.05.006
  10. Lewis, N.D. (2017). Neural Networks for Time Series Forecasting with R: An Intuitive Step by Step Blueprint for Beginners. CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform.
  11. Marhon, S.A., Cameron, C.J.F., & Kremer, S.C. (2013). Recurrent Neural Networks. In M. Bianchini, M. Maggini, & L. Jain (Eds.), Intelligent Systems Reference Library: Vol. 49. Handbook on Neural Information Processing (pp. 29-65). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-36657-4_2
  12. Du, K.-L., & Swamy, M.N.S. (2014). Recurrent Neural Networks. In Neural Networks and Statistical Learning (pp. 337–353). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-5571-3_11
  13. Goodfellow, I., Bengio, Y., & Courville, A. (2016). Deep learning. MIT Press. https://www.deeplearningbook.org/
  14. Elman, J. L. (1990). Finding structure in time. Cognitive Science, 14(2), 179–211. https://doi.org/10.1016/0364-0213(90)90002-E
  15. Wang, J., Wang, J., Fang, W., & Niu, H. (2016). Financial Time Series Prediction Using Elman Recurrent Random Neural Networks. Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience, 2016, Article 4742515. https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/4742515
  16. Li, C., Zhu, L., He, Z., Gao, H., Yang, Y., Yao, D., & Qu, X. (2019). Runoff Prediction Method Based on Adaptive Elman Neural Network. Water, 11(6), Article 1113. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11061113
  17. Ren, G., Cao, Y., Wen, S., Huang, T., & Zeng, Z. (2018). A Modified Elman Neural Network with a New Learning Rate Scheme. Neurocomputing, 286, 11-18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neucom.2018.01.046
  18. Wysocki, A, & Ławryńczuk, M. (2015). Jordan neural network for modelling and predictive control of dynamic systems. In Proceedings of 2015 20th International Conference on Methods and Models in Automation and Robotics (pp. 145-150). IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/MMAR.2015.7283862
  19. Jordan, M. I. (1997). Serial order: A parallel distributed processing approach. In J. W. Donahoe, & V. P. Dorsel (Eds.), Advances in Psychology: Vol. 121. Neural-network models of cognition: Biobehavioral foundations (pp. 471–495). Elsevier Science Publishers. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0166-4115(97)80111-2
  20. Putri, T. E., Firdaus, A. A., & Sabilla, W. I. (2018). Short-Term Forecasting of Electricity Consumption Revenue on Java-Bali Electricity System using Jordan Recurrent Neural Network. Journal of Information Systems Engineering and Business Intelligence, 4(2), 96–105. https://doi.org/10.20473/jisebi.4.2.96-105
  21. Mohamad, R., Skafi, M., & Haidar, A. (2014). Predicting Global Solar Radiation Using Recurrent Neural Networks and Climatological Parameters. International Journal of Mathematical, Computational, Physical, Electrical and Computer Engineering, 8(2), 331-334. https://publications.waset.org/9997510/pdf
  22. Shcherbakov, M.V., Brebels, A., Shcherbakova, N.L., Tyukov, A.P., Janosky, T.A., & Kamaev, V.A. (2013). A Survey of Forecast Error Measures. World Applied Sciences Journal, 24, 171-176. https://doi.org/10.5829/idosi.wasj.2013.24.itmies.80032
  23. Spiegelhalter, D. (2019). The Art of Statistics: How to Learn from Data. Basic Books.
  24. Official statistics of Latvia. (2005-2021). Average retail prices of selected commodity (euro per 1 kg, if other - specified) 2005M01 - 2021M07 [Data set]. Retrieved August 11, 2021, from https://data.stat.gov.lv/pxweb/en/OSP_PUB/START__VEK__PC__PCC/PCC010m/
  25. Bergmeir, C., & Benítez, J. (2012). Neural Networks in R Using the Stuttgart Neural Network Simulator: RSNNS. Journal of Statistical Software, 46(7), 1–26. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v046.i07