Neuro-Fuzzy Modeling Techniques in Economics

Neuro-Fuzzy Modeling Techniques in Economics

Modeling human social security during war

DOI:

10.33111/nfmte.2023.111

Анотація:
Abstract: This paper explores the impact of economic and social policy on the life expectancy at birth as it determines the human social security in the country, reflecting the level of life support, well-being, social protection and self-preservation, as well as the level of education and self-development. We identified a certain “trap of social insecurity”, when a low level of income in the country leads to the degradation of human capital, a decrease in life expectancy due to the lack of adequate social protection that may ultimately lead to the slowdown in economic development. This mechanism of maintaining social insecurity significantly accelerates during military conflicts. From the cluster analysis, we can conclude that hybrid wars do not have a noticeable effect on the average life expectancy of the population. The empirical results of the panel VAR model showed slight response of life expectancy to economic and social policy shocks in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine – countries that are the victims of either hybrid wars or full-scale hostilities on the territory of the former USSR. The most significant effect on life expectancy is exerted by the growth of gross domestic product per capita. Current health expenditure per capita shocks have a small positive effect on life expectancy in the short run. On the other hand, unemployment and the factor of hybrid wars and military conflicts have a slight negative impact in the short term. In the long run, all the above impacts are leveled off. At the same time, the results of decomposition of the variance of the forecast errors of life expectancy at birth showed that its volatility is largely explained by the inherent fluctuations of this indicator. The variation of gross domestic product per capita explains about 9% of the variation in life expectancy at birth in the selected countries, unemployment – slightly more than 2%.
Ключові слова:
Key words: social security, economic development, life expectancy at birth, cluster analysis, self-organizing map, panel VAR model
УДК:
UDC:

JEL: C33 C38 C5 H55 H56 I15

To cite paper
In APA style
Bazhenova, O., Varnalii, Z., Cheberyako, O., & Mykytiuk, O. (2023). Modeling human social security during war. Neuro-Fuzzy Modeling Techniques in Economics, 12, 111-132. http://doi.org/10.33111/nfmte.2023.111
In MON style
Bazhenova O., Varnalii Z., Cheberyako O., Mykytiuk O. Modeling human social security during war. Нейро-нечіткі технології моделювання в економіці. 2023. № 12. С. 111-132. http://doi.org/10.33111/nfmte.2023.111 (дата звернення: 21.12.2024).
With transliteration
Bazhenova, O., Varnalii, Z., Cheberyako, O., Mykytiuk, O. (2023) Modeling human social security during war. Neuro-Fuzzy Modeling Techniques in Economics, no. 12. pp. 111-132. http://doi.org/10.33111/nfmte.2023.111 (accessed 21 Dec 2024).
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