Neuro-Fuzzy Modeling Techniques in Economics

Neuro-Fuzzy Modeling Techniques in Economics

ISSN 2415-3516

Olena Bazhenova

Zakharii Varnalii

Oksana Cheberyako

Oksana Mykytiuk

External shocks and human social security system: evidence from Ukraine

DOI:

10.33111/nfmte.2024.003

Abstract: The paper explores the impact of such an external factor as military aggression on the human social security system in Ukraine, since during a war this system mainly influenced by external factors than internal ones. To conduct the study, clustering was carried out using the Kohonen self-organizing maps on the dataset covering the period from 2010 to 2023 for 5 countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine) in order to identify common patterns, since all of them were subjected to military aggression. Results of the research showed that Ukraine during the full-scale war (since 2022) and for several years before it (given creeping aggression and Russia’s occupation of Crimea in 2014) was located in the isolated cluster, the most striking features of which are internally displaced persons, armed forces personnel, and the proportion of people living below 50 percent of median income. In addition, clustering of countries worldwide in 2022 was carried out according to the same indicators. It was concluded that both full-scale hostilities and hybrid wars provoke deteriorations in human social security. But, the degree of deceleration of the economic activity and, consequently, worsening of human social security varies depending on the character of the hostilities.

Key words: social security, threats, external shocks, war in Ukraine, clustering, Kohonen self-organizing map

JEL: C38 C45 H56 I32

To cite paper

In APA style

Bazhenova, O., Varnalii, Z., Cheberyako, O., & Mykytiuk, O. (2024). External shocks and human social security system: evidence from Ukraine. Neuro-Fuzzy Modeling Techniques in Economics, 13, 3-24. http://doi.org/10.33111/nfmte.2024.003

In MON style

Bazhenova O., Varnalii Z., Cheberyako O., Mykytiuk O. External shocks and human social security system: evidence from Ukraine. Нейро-нечіткі технології моделювання в економіці. 2024. № 13. С. 3-24. http://doi.org/10.33111/nfmte.2024.003 (дата звернення: 16.02.2026).

With transliteration

Bazhenova, O., Varnalii, Z., Cheberyako, O., Mykytiuk, O. (2024) External shocks and human social security system: evidence from Ukraine. Neuro-Fuzzy Modeling Techniques in Economics, no. 13. pp. 3-24. http://doi.org/10.33111/nfmte.2024.003 (accessed 16 Feb 2026).

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